In this study, 3D dynamic earthquake simulations will be used to create a large database of synthetic ground motions in Israel, along the active Dead-Sea Transform plate boundary, explicitly accounting for the covariance in the input parameters.
Because quantification of uncertainty is a critical component of seismic hazard and risk analysis, the resulting database will be used to characterize the components of variability in ground motions, specifically identifying the controlling source, path, and site components within the variability.
The simulations will compute fully deterministic wave propagation up to 10Hz, so that variability can be quantified within frequency bands of engineering interest.A realistic 3D velocity model will be implemented, including unique features such as deep sedimentary basins and bi-material ruptures, so that their effect on the resulting ground motions can be studied. The proposed research will directly contribute to the standing issue of incorporating physics-based simulations into the development of Ground Motion Models (GMMs) in active, yet data-poor regions.
Preliminary simulations running on a similar platform at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) included 109 computation points and approx. 1.5*106 core-hours per simulation. Therefore - without high performance computing (HPC) this study could not proceed.
Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel.